They have won close to two-thirds of their Tests in the most recent cycle, and their fast bowlers and spinners alike have delivered stellar numbers
Kartikeya Date12-Jul-2023India have now lost four knockout matches in ICC tournaments in England in Tests and ODIs, all at two-year intervals, in 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2023. In among these four setbacks, their T20 international side failed to win any World Cups too. It has been a humiliating period for India’s millions of fans, and like most humiliated fans, they’re asking questions.It is now just past ten years that India last won an ICC tournament, when they beat South Africa, West Indies, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and then England in a rain-affected final in the 2013 ICC Champions Trophy. In this period, they have won the ODI and T20I Asia Cups once each, and the Nidahas Trophy in 2018, but no ICC title. Across three formats, in ten years, India have lost eight ICC knockout matches – three ODIs, three T20Is and two Tests. In these ten years, India have played 207 other ODIs, 151 other T20Is, and 96 other Tests, and won them all at a ratio of close to two wins to each loss – a rate that no previous Indian side has approached. By any reasonable measure, this is not only the best Indian side yet, it is one of the greatest cricket teams in the history of the game.Related
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This article looks at only Test cricket, since that’s where India have apparently most recently failed. However, it is difficult to compare Test teams because unlike, say, a formal league (such as the IPL, or the English Premier League in football), Test cricket does not operate on a regular calendar. The Future Tours Programme provides for home and away tours over a four- or five-year cycle. Leaving Afghanistan and Ireland aside for now, since they are just beginning their time as Test teams, the other ten Test teams are supposed to play each other home and away regularly. One way to evaluate teams, which is used in this article, is to consider each team’s most recent home and away series against the other nine teams.Note: For many seasons in the 21st century, Pakistan fulfilled their “home” fixtures in the Test tours calendar in the UAE (several teams, several seasons), in Sri Lanka (2002-03 vs Australia), and in England (2010 vs Aus). These fixtures are counted as home fixtures for Pakistan in this article.This method is not perfect. No method is. But considering that the key virtue of Test cricket is that it tests its contestants under a wide variety of circumstances, looking at the most recent home and away results is among the better ways of evaluating Test teams. There are some obvious problems here, such as India not having played Pakistan in Tests since 2007-08, and India having played Australia twice in Australia in the last five years. In all such cases, the most recent series result is included. Eighteen series are considered for each team – nine at home and nine away.
As things currently stand (see the table above), India have won 32 and lost ten Tests in their most recent home and away series, and won 14 series, lost three and shared one. Along with Australia, they are the best team of this era. Let’s consider the picture at two recent points in Test history when the Indian Test team reached a peak of sorts – at the end of the 2003-04 season, when they split a series in Australia and won in Pakistan (second table), and at the end of the 2010-11 season, when they split a series in South Africa (third table).The striking thing about the 2003-04 chart below is the near parity of the five mid-table teams – England, India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Pakistan – far behind South Africa, the second-best team of that cycle, and Australia. It suggests that these teams found it difficult to compete against Australia (South Africa were temporarily in decline by the middle of 2004 – Allan Donald had retired, and Dale Steyn was yet to develop into the maestro he eventually became). These mid-table sides were all able to win about a third of their Tests. Australia, with Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath in their ranks during this period, had a bowling attack that no other side could match. Eventually, England would match them at home in 2005, and win back the Ashes for the first time since 1986-87.
The landscape had shifted by 2010-11 in two respects. First, England, South Africa, India and Sri Lanka had improved. Second, it was an era of relatively shallow attacks and excellent batting wickets. At the end of the 2022-23 season, 173 out of 209 Tests (83%) produced outright results. By the end of the 2010-11 season, 162 out of 221 Tests (73%) had produced outright results. India had the second-best record of all teams by the end of the 2010-11 season, but they won less than half their Tests.
Evidence for the relative shallowness of bowling attacks and batting friendliness of the conditions during the first decade of this century is also seen in the bowling averages by bowling position. Rolling bowling averages by bowling position are shown in the graph below. The bowling position for a bowler in an innings is when the bowler is first asked to bowl in the innings. New-ball bowlers occupy positions one (the bowler who delivers the first over of the innings) and two (the bowler who delivers the second over of the innings). The first-change bowler occupies position three, the second change position four, and so on.Getty ImagesFor much of the 20th century (with a brief exception in the 1960s) at least one, if not both new- ball bowlers in Tests took their wickets at a cost of under 30 runs per wicket on average. Change bowlers have taken their wickets between 30 and 35 runs per wicket, with the exception of the 1950s, when the third and fourth bowlers averaged 29-30 runs per wicket. In the early 2000s change bowlers only managed 34-37 runs per wicket. From 2000 to 2011, Australia played 136 Tests, of which only 21 (15%) were drawn. Of the 411 Tests not involving Australia during this period, 116 (28%) were drawn.In the second decade of this century, and especially in the second half of this decade, with the effects of the DRS, fewer featherbeds, and deeper pace attacks, outright results have become more common. Of the most recent 200 Tests, 28 were drawn. In the 200-Test span ending in the last Test of the 2010-11 season, which ran from March 2006 to January 2011 (no Tests were played from February 2011 to May that year, because of the ODI World Cup), 57 were drawn. The effect of shallower attacks is seen even in matches involving outright results, and not just in the frequency of outright results. In periods with weaker new-ball bowling, the average cost of a wicket for both winning and losing sides rises (see the table below).
The current era has been one of great bowling depth in more Test teams, especially in their home conditions, than ever before. In eras with deeper bowling attacks, more teams can realistically win Test matches. Conditions that make draws unlikely (absent inclement weather for significant periods of the Test) make defeat more likely for both sides. Taking 20 wickets is necessary for winning a Test match (the rare exceptions being declarations that have gone wrong, or the even rarer innings forfeit). In the table above, 198 teams (or 49.5%) managed to bowl the opposition out twice in a Test in the 200 Tests from Test No. 2201 to No. 2400, and 99 (55%) have managed it in Tests since January 2021. Among the many reasons for this improvement is the advent of the DRS, and improved drainage and ground-management technology, which has shortened weather interruptions. In what is arguably one of the less discussed aspects of the contemporary game, ubiquitous access of video analysis, ball-tracking records, and most crucially, superior fitness and workload management for bowlers, have also helped. Since January 2016, four out of ten Test teams have bowled the opposition out twice in at least half their Tests.India have won 64% of the Tests in their most recent cycle, during which time the factors described in the paragraph above have been in play. It is an extraordinary achievement by an extraordinary side. Few teams in the history of Test cricket have competed as well as India have with their fast and slow bowlers alike. In the 34 Tests India have played outside Asia after Test No. 2200 (in 2016), their fast bowlers have taken 372 wickets at 26.8 apiece, while their spinners have managed 174 wickets at 28.6 apiece. In 41 Tests in Asia during the same period, India’s spinners have managed 523 wickets at 22.6 runs per wicket, and their fast bowlers have managed 238 wickets at 24.6 runs per wicket. No other team has achieved this sub-30 record across the board (pace and spin) in conditions that might be considered seam-dominant and conditions that might be considered spin-dominant. England, Australia and South Africa have had more potent pace attacks than India outside Asia during this period, but their spinners have been significantly more expensive (with the exception of Australia, who have Nathan Lyon in their ranks). Similarly, New Zealand and West Indies have had pace attacks comparable to India in Tests outside Asia during this period, but their spinners have also been more expensive. Everywhere India travels, they face excellent attacks.Consider the example of India beating England in England. Technically, they failed to achieve this in 2021, since the fifth Test of that series was postponed, and they lost that postponed match, at Edgbaston in 2022, and the series was squared 2-2. Before then, India beat England in England in 1971, 1986 and 2007. All three were short series. In 1971 and 2007, rain saved them from near certain defeat at least once (arguably twice in 1971). In 1986, England lost at home to both India and New Zealand after being whitewashed by West Indies in the West Indies.Of the three Indian series wins in England, they were luckiest in 1971, against Ray Illingworth’s side, which had just won the Ashes in Australia. In 1986, John Lever (67 wickets), Graham Dilley (50), Richard Ellison (34), Neil Foster (34) and Derek Pringle (16) were England’s most experienced seamers, and Phil Edmonds (91) and John Emburey (89) the most experienced spinners. In 2007, James Anderson (46) and Ryan Sidebottom (16) were England’s most experienced seamers. Chris Tremlett was on debut. Monty Panesar (65) was England’s most experienced spinner. The 2021 and 2022 Tests were different. The English attack included Anderson (617) and Stuart Broad (523), to go with Moeen Ali (181), Ben Stokes (158) and Chris Woakes (112). In addition, they had Ollie Robinson, who has since shown himself to be a world-class Test match fast bowler. The 2021-22 England side were a different proposition compared to the 1971, 1986 and 2007 ones.This great Indian era, however, is coming to an end now. The Indian Test team of 2023 is their oldest ever in Test cricket in terms of average age. The team that faced Australia in the WTC final in June 2023 had an average age of 32.6 years. The sides of 2010-11 (30.6 years), 2003-04 (27.1 years) and 2013-14 (27.6 years) are the other India teams considered in this article. It is an inescapable downside of having a generation of a dozen or so players of similar age who all turned out to be world-class competitors.
Change is in the air. The Indian selectors have signalled as much by leaving out Umesh Yadav (age 35) and Cheteshwar Pujara (35), and resting Mohammed Shami (32), and replacing them with Mukesh Kumar (29), Ruturaj Gaikwad (26) and Yashasvi Jaiswal (21). Four regulars – Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Jasprit Bumrah and Rishabh Pant – remain sidelined with injuries. Ishant Sharma (34) already seems to be out of Test contention for fitness reasons.This is yet another problem of a successful era in which the core of a team is more or less of the same age. If India now look for batting replacements in the 20-24 age group, which is where they have historically found their best batters, it will mean bypassing a couple of cricketing generations of batters (if we take a cricketing generation to be about six years – the time involved in a player moving from Under-15 cricket to the senior level at age 21). Of the 46 players who have batted in the top six for India A in first-class matches since the start of 2016, eight have played for India (discounting the likes of Ajinkya Rahane, Cheteshwar Pujara, KL Rahul and Wriddhiman Saha, who had already made their Test debuts by 2016). Of these, only Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant, and perhaps Shreyas Iyer, currently command a first-choice spot in the India Test XI. Several of their India A colleagues, like Abhimanyu Easwaran (27), Priyank Panchal (33), Hanuma Vihari (29), Ankit Bawne (30), Ravikumar Samarth (30) and Karun Nair (31), seem to have been leapfrogged now by Jaiswal and Gaikwad (who are also India A alums). Srikar Bharat has been the regular India A wicketkeeper, but despite being a magnificent keeper, he is unlikely to keep his Test spot when the brilliant Pant (India A, 2017-18) returns from his injury. There isn’t an obvious solution to this problem.
What does the future look like? For a glimpse, consider the state of Test cricket at the end of the 2013-14 season (see table above). Having won 12 and lost two series (difference: ten) in their cycle ending with the 2010-11 season, India finished the 2013-14 season having lost six series and won nine – a reversal of seven series (out of 18). Until a new generation, or at least, a new core settles into its place, India will find winning Test matches and series significantly more difficult than they have made it seem in the last few years. India have won 172 and lost 176 in their 570-Test history. Fifty of those 172 Test wins (and only 21 defeats) have come since Virat Kohli took over the Test team from MS Dhoni in December 2014. Of their 286 Tests outside India, 58 have been won and 122 lost. Since Kohli took over from Dhoni, there have been 20 wins and 19 defeats in Tests outside India.We could remember two Test matches in England in June, or we could remember 50 Test wins everywhere in the world in every month of the calendar. The choice is ours. When teams win a lot, winning often appears easy. It is never easy. I know how I will remember this Indian team – as the best team in the world of its time, and as one of the greatest teams in the history of Test cricket.